The stage is set! The 2025 CFP National Championship game isn’t the matchup that we all thought it was going to be weeks ago. However, Notre Dame and Ohio State showed out in these College Football Playoffs and are now on the big stage. By the way, why isn’t the SEC here? I was told all year long that no other team can touch the competition in the SEC. Weird. Anyway, this should be an excellent game and one that features a couple of great defenses.
The betting world is already crowning Ohio State as the national champ. This is the sixth biggest betting spread (-8.5) since 2000. It’s the second time that Notre Dame has been on the wrong end of a spread like this, see Alabama vs ND in 2012. Notre Dame isn’t alone though. Ohio State was a 9.5-point underdog in 2020 to Bama and lost by 28. Of the eight largest spreads since 2000, just one underdog ended up winning – Oklahoma +11.5 vs FSU in 2000.
How They Got Here
After their embarrassing loss to Michigan to end the season, the 8th-seeded Buckeyes were left out of the Big 10 title game but still made the dance. And they have waltzed right by their opponents. They have dominated Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas. Their point-differential in those games is 111 to 52. They have left no doubt every step of the way.
The Fighting Irish have been dominant in their own right. It started in the first-ever game of this expanded CFP when they suffocated Indiana to just 17 points, eliminating a top offense. They crushed Georgia by 13 points and then needed a little help from their kicker to get the job done against Penn State last Thursday Night.
Keys to the Game
For the Irish, the right version of Riley Leonard must show up. He threw two picks in the semis against Penn State. One of those came in the fourth quarter in a massive spot. This is the biggest stage he will ever play on, and they must have a clean game from him. Ohio State is the number one passing defense in the nation for a reason.
For the Buckeyes, their key to a win comes down to TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. They are two of the most electric running backs in all of college football. The Irish have the 43rd ranked run defense in the nation. Ohio State didn’t need them as much against Texas, but they showed what they can do against Tennessee and Oregon. Notre Dame must figure out a way to slow them down and make Chip Kelly, the Buckeyes offensive coordinator, find another way to beat them.
What will happen
History often repeats itself. There is a reason that Ohio State is the 8.5-point favorite. Had they avoided an ugly loss to Michigan where they were caught looking ahead, there is a world where Ohio State was the number one team entering this College Football Playoff. Their defense is elite. Their quarterback is poised. Their best wide receiver is ready for the NFL and he’s only a freshman. A year after Michigan won a title, the Buckeyes will be laughing. Prediction: Notre Dame 22 Ohio State 28